Two reports landed in September that seem to contradict each other. On 7 September the German association ZIV published its half-year review: bicycle sales up 10 percent, e-bike sales up 2 percent, e-bike production up 4 percent in the first half of 2026, overstock largely cleared, workshops full. Managing director Burkhard Stork's words: we are past the bottom (ZIV). A few days earlier Shimano had reported flat bicycle component revenue, operating profit down 15.1 percent, and European market inventories that remain somewhat high (SGB Media).
Both are right. They are just looking at different shelves.
Demand: stable, not growing much
The ZIV numbers describe the German dealer floor. Consumers are buying again, service bays are booked out, and the discounted 2023 stock that poisoned pricing for two years is mostly gone. Two percent growth in e-bike units is not a boom. It is a floor, and after two years of falling that is worth a lot for planning.
Supply: still clearing, and about to tighten
Shimano sees Europe as a whole, including the distributor warehouses and the markets that lagged Germany. There the stock is still high, which is why the component business is weak while consumer demand stabilises. Meanwhile the Taiwanese assemblers are turning: Axman is back in profit on a growing e-bike business and Ideal Bike saw improvement in the second quarter (Bike Europe). When the factories fill up again, the bargain stock and the short lead times disappear together.
Structure: this is where the real change is
The market is not changing in demand. It is changing in who supplies it. Accell is bankrupt and being carved up. Ampler entered insolvency in May, and its proprietary drive system left dealers unsure about warranty service. Rad Power Bikes changed hands for around 14.9 million dollars after its Chapter 11, and previous customers have no warranty (Electric Bike Explorer). At the same time Bosch, which skipped Eurobike, is tying dealers closer with a training season that starts on 20 October and a new Hub Line hub motor for the 2027 model year; 81 percent of UK and Irish training places were sold a month before the start (BikeBiz).
Read those together and a pattern appears. Dealers have been burned three times in a year by brands that could not honour warranties. The supplier that wins 2027 is not the cheapest one. It is the one that can promise the dealer parts, warranty and service for the life of the bike, and prove it.
What this means for spring 2027
- Buy now, not in January. If you are a brand or distributor sourcing frames, motors or complete bikes, the window of cheap stock and idle capacity is closing as the Taiwanese plants recover. Negotiate framework agreements this autumn.
- Put service in the pitch. Bosch training seats, a parts stock in Europe, a named service partner. Dealers will ask, and after Accell they will check.
- Do not build a 2027 plan on a demand recovery. Plan for flat volume and win share from the brands that are disappearing. That is where the growth is.
Past the bottom, yes. But the climb out is being decided in the supply chain, not at the checkout.